Cases rise as winter is on the way: epidemiologist

In most parts of Canada, COVID cases have continued to rise at a steady rate and Saskatchewan is no exception.

There were 1,244 new cases reported in October, while in September, there were only 291 new cases in the province.

Dr. Timothy Sly, an epidemiologist at Ryerson University, joined Gormley on Monday to discuss how Saskatchewan’s numbers compare to the rest of the country, as well as what to expect in the coming winter.

“While Ontario and Quebec have seen these vast numbers increasing, when you divide by the population and look at the number of cases per million for example, then suddenly, Manitoba leaps into the into the fore as being the largest number of cases per million. Saskatchewan is still much lower … (but) you only have one thin border away, and in Canada, (that) doesn’t mean anything at all,” he explained.

He pointed to the Maritimes as examples of very low transmission. As of Sunday, New Brunswick had 33 active cases, Nova Scotia had 13, Newfoundland and Labrador had just three, and there were no active cases in Prince Edward Island.

As to why these four provinces have done so well, Sly points to their public health response, rather than any particular behaviour.

“They’re not anti-social people on the east coast. I’ve travelled to the Maritimes, and they’re very social people. So, it’s not a case of living like a hermit. What it is, I think, is a case of good contact tracing and identifying where the cases come from, (as well as) putting up fairly strong borders around them,” he said.

Still, he believes it’s possible for other provinces including Saskatchewan, to drop their case numbers by a similar margin.

“We can follow that track, simply by taking more care and more precautions.”

One of the biggest concerns of a rise in case numbers is what it could do to the health system. As of Sunday, there were 33 people in hospital in the province, with seven in intensive care.

“As the cases go up, a proportion of those will be severe, will be hospitalised and will be on ventilators, needing an intensive care room. Hospitals are beginning to worry about that again, just like they were in the very beginning (of the pandemic),” Sly said.

He believes this can cause a couple of issues. For one, medical staff can be at higher risk of picking up the virus.

“First responders, particularly in places like an emergency room, or the respiratory technologist (are at risk) … There are all kinds of bits of particles and droplets flying around the room for many metres of space … These people are exposed a lot,” he said.

Also, it takes up capacity at hospitals for injuries and illnesses that aren’t related to COVID-19.

“Don’t forget that the rest of us are still suffering from a burst appendix, a broken leg, or a heart attack (for example). We still need hospitals open and available with a treatment for these people,” he continued.

As the winter months begin to creep across the country, Sly explained that viruses tend to spread more easily in cold, dry weather.

“As the furnaces come on, the air becomes much drier than it was in the summer. Dry air helps the virus, because it evaporates the moisture around the nucleus where the virus is in each droplet … If you have ever seen, on a sunny day, the sun coming in the window, and you puff up the cushion or something, and you can see the dust in the sunlight. That’s exactly like the virus. It doesn’t fall down by gravity, it floats around, and that’s what we can expect as a cold weather comes,” he explained.

You can hear Sly’s entire interview with Gormley online.