Variants unlikely to increase in Saskatoon over next two weeks: U of S wastewater study

So far, so good for Saskatoon when it comes to what wastewater tells us about COVID-19 trends.

Researchers at the University of Saskatchewan sampling Saskatoon’s wastewater aren’t seeing signs of a coming spike yet, and say if it does happen, it shouldn’t be for two or three weeks.

Toxicologist Dr. John Giesy has been part of a team at the U of S using wastewater samples to gather data since last July. The data has helped predict upward and downward trends in COVID-19 cases as far as 10 days away.

As variants of concern like the B.1.1.7 (United Kingdom) strain and the B1.351 (South Africa) strain continue to appear in cases in Regina — accounting for 84 per cent of the province’s 1064 variant cases — Giesy isn’t expecting to see a sharp rise in Saskatoon anytime soon.

“We’re at least two to three weeks out from that — if it does occur,” Giesy said, pointing to a number of factors that could see Saskatoon avoid a sharp increase entirely.

“It depends on how people respond, it depends on what the weather does … and it depends on the vaccination rollout. There’s a lot of positives. It might not happen,” he added.

Over the next seven to 10 days, Saskatoon isn’t expected to report an increase based on how difficult it’s becoming for Giesy’s team to detect variants in the current samples.

“I can’t say it’s not there because you can’t prove a negative. We think we’ve detected the B.1.1.7, but we can’t quantify it. It’s so close to our detection limit,” Giesy said.

“I can tell you I’m finding it, it’s showing up, but it’s really, really close to that detection limit.”

Recent findings in the study also suggest new daily cases in Saskatoon are beginning to plateau.

“What we call the wild types, what most people in Saskatoon have been infected with, has been going down to the point where we’re getting close to our level to detect that,” Giesy said. “The number of new cases in Saskatoon is way down.”

Giesy’s team recently received funding from Public Health Agency of Canada to continue the study while expanding to five First Nations across the province, with plans to add an additional 10 First Nations to the list.

Now the team has even bigger goals in mind as more communities across Canada look to wastewater for answers about COVID-19 trends.

“The idea is to use this current pandemic, but to build for the future for things we can do for monitoring to help with public health,” Giesy said.

Giesy said the U of S will become the prairie node of a pan-Canada program for next year, ensuring that funding will continue in 2022.

Just two months ago, Giesy wasn’t even sure if there was enough interest in the study to continue in 2021 as funding ran dry.

“I guess it’s just my nature to look for how to make the best of a situation,” he said. “I’ve been doing that my whole life.”

After catching the attention of the Public Health Agency of Canada, Giesy was able to collaborate with familiar colleague Mark Servos at the University of Waterloo in Ontario.

Servos has been monitoring wastewater for the greater Toronto area and the Peel region, coincidentally the only other region in Canada aside from Regina to see a dramatic increase in variant cases.

“We’re really making a pretty big splash nationally, and other people have joined in,” Giesy said, “because we can give you a prediction about a week to 10 days out of what’s going to happen in a local area.”

The newfound success and partial fame hasn’t come without its fair share of drawbacks as well.

“My relatives all write to me and say, ‘You’re Dr. Poop now,’” Giesy said.

With hopes of expanding the research to Regina to track variant cases and provide health officials with accurate modelling data, Giesy is hoping this cross-country wastewater revolution can help shape how provinces react to any similar viruses in the future.

“If there’s one or two people in Saskatoon that are infected, I’ll find it,” Giesy said.