Despite warm weather, climatologist predicts white Christmas in Sask.

People across Saskatchewan are feeling the effects of El Niño.

It is nearly the end of November, but with little or no snow on the ground, it still looks like September across much of the province.

David Phillips, a senior climatologist with Environment and Climate Change Canada, said it’s not yet cold enough for snow to accumulate on the ground, despite some big snowfalls.

“In Regina, you’ve had one time where maybe 11 or 12 centimetres of snow has fallen,” said Phillips.

Phillips said snow that falls from Halloween on is usually the snow that makes for a white Christmas, but this year, that’s not the case.

Saskatchewan, Phillips said, has seen “absolutely balmy temperatures” so far this fall, with very few days where the temperature stayed below 0 C throughout the entire day.

“You’ve had, in Saskatoon, eight of them in October. There’s been one or two in November. You normally would’ve had 45 of those by now,” the climatologist said.

Phillips said the warm fall is due to the lack of Arctic air. The air blowing into Saskatchewan this fall has been mostly western and Pacific air brought in by El Niño.

Saskatchewan has actually seen more rain than snow in November, which Phillips said is very rare.

Will Saskatchewan get snow in time for Christmas?

Phillips said 2023 could bring one of the latest starts to winter in Saskatchewan’s history. But, he added, the province will probably get some snow that sticks around in time for Christmas.

“White Christmas in Saskatchewan? That’s almost a done deal,” he said.

So when can Saskatchewan expect its first real snowfall? According to Phillips, it’s still too hard to say.

“We can’t see on our models yet any kind of a situation of a big weather bomb,” said Phillips. “Right now, it seems to be a very dry situation, and that’s likely to continue.”

According to meteorologist Natalie Hasell, there are only two days in the next two weeks that show the potential for precipitation in either Saskatoon or Regina.

“Possibly some precipitation on Nov. 28,” said Hasell. “Then, after that, we do have a number of models suggesting some precipitation could occur between now and the Sixth of December.”