What’s next for Canada after the latest moves in the U.S. presidential race?

WASHINGTON, D. C. — Observers expect Kamala Harris to follow President Joe Biden’s roadmap for America’s relationship with Canada as she moves to secure the Democratic party’s presidential nomination.

“On the key things that matter for Canada-U.S. relations, her outlook is very similar to the president,” said Christopher Sands, director of the Canada Institute at the Woodrow Wilson Center in Washington.

Biden endorsed Harris, his second-in-command, as he dropped out of the 2024 presidential race Sunday.

Biden bowed to weeks of pressure after appearing confused and frail during a debate with Republican rival Donald Trump last month, followed by missteps on the world stage during the NATO leaders’ conference.

The vice-president moved quickly to shore up support for her bid to be the party’s presidential nominee. Harris has received the blessing of important Democratic figures including former House speaker Nancy Pelosi, who holds significant influence and sway within the party.

“The most important thing is the remarkable degree to which the party has coalesced around Harris,” said the University of Pennsylvania’s Marc Trussler.

Trussler, director of data science for the university’s program on opinion research and election studies, said the main risk of Biden’s departure was whether the Democrats could present a united front in his wake.

Harris looks to be able to sweep the support of delegates ahead of the party’s national convention next month, where a choice of presidential candidate will be confirmed.

Trussler, who is Canadian, said Biden’s departure and the party’s response was a critical moment for the Democrats to decide what the election was going to be about: Biden’s mental acuity or Trump’s policies.

“It seems more likely than not this election will now be about Donald Trump,” Trussler said.

Kirsten Hillman, Canada’s ambassador to the U.S., said the relationship between the two countries flourished under the leadership of Biden, who she described as “an experienced, thoughtful and dedicated leader.”

Even so, Canadians have been reaching out to Democrats and Republicans alike for months to make their case for co-operation ahead of the November election. Top of mind is the looming review of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement in 2026.

Harris was one of 10 U.S. senators to vote against the trade agreement, saying it didn’t do enough to protect American workers or the environment.

During his presidency, Trump pushed for renegotiation of the old North American Free Trade Agreement and his administration introduced billions of dollars’ worth of tariffs, particularly on Chinese imports. He has threatened more tariffs and decreased aid to Ukraine, fighting off Russia’s invasion, if he wins a second term in office.

“Under our leadership, the United States will be respected again,” Trump said last week during a lengthy speech at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee.

Softwood lumber and Canada’s digital services tax are key areas of contention for both Republicans and Democrats.

Biden’s tenure brought some stability but not much change. He largely kept Trump’s tariffs in place, despite promises to reverse them. There has also been tension over the Biden administration’s Buy American procurement rules.

Federal NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh said he wasn’t concerned by some signaling that Democrats could continue leaning toward protectionist policies under Harris. Singh, speaking from Timmons, Ont., told reporters that Trump was a bully but Biden was more open to compromise on important aspects of trade.

Melissa Haussman, professor emeritus at Carleton University in Ottawa, said she believes Harris “gets it” on trade, especially with Canada.

Garry Keller, vice-president of the lobby firm Strategy Corp., said he expects those protectionist policies to continue under the Harris banner.

The Democrats will have to work hard to win the blue-wall states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, said Keller, who was chief of staff to former Conservative foreign minister John Baird.

In 2016, they swung Republican when Trump went on to win, and in 2020 they went Democrat and helped put Biden in the White House.

Canadians should focus less on how this specific election turns out, said Alasdair Roberts, a professor of public policy at University of Massachusetts Amherst. Instead, Roberts said, Canadian governments need to build long-term strategies to deal with an increasingly tumultuous American political system

“The long-term reality for Canada, regardless of who wins this election, is that the United States is going through a period of political and social instability that’s going to last for several years,” said Roberts, a Canadian.

The powers of the president and the role of the federal government have expanded since the Second World War and it’s now a “winner-takes-all competition,” Roberts said. It has led to an increasingly volatile electoral environment and makes America an increasingly difficult neighbour.

The challenge for Canadians, Roberts said, is “figuring out how to manage that instability.”

That means “intensified, distributed diplomacy” which doesn’t just focus on Washington, he said. It must also include conversations with state governments, critical industries and American citizens themselves.

Roberts suspects leaders in Ottawa and across Canada are already coming up with plans for worst-case scenarios for the relationship with Canada’s largest partner. He said they are likely asking “what you can do to reduce dependence on the United States.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published July 22, 2024.

Kelly Geraldine Malone, The Canadian Press