Premier Scott Moe directed Lieutenant Governor Russ Mirasty to dissolve the Legislative Assembly and issue the writs of election on Tuesday, kicking off Saskatchewan’s 2024 general election.
Residents will head to the polls on October 28 to vote for their representatives in the assembly.
Moe’s Saskatchewan Party currently holds a strong majority in the assembly – as it has since 2007 – controlling 43 of the assembly’s 61 seats. Carla Beck’s New Democratic Party, which currently serves as Saskatchewan’s official opposition, holds just 14 seats. Three MLAs currently sit as independents, including Nadine Wilson (Saskatchewan Rivers) who is affiliated with the newly minted Saskatchewan United Party, and one seat is currently vacant.
The upcoming election will be Beck’s first major test as NDP leader. Beck (Regina Lakeview) took over the role from Ryan Meili in 2022, becoming the party’s first female leader.
The race to elect a new government in #Saskatchewan begins today.
Here’s what we know so far ⤵️ @CKOMNews @CJMENews pic.twitter.com/9OdhDcgGIR
— Alex Brown (@AlexBrownYXE) October 1, 2024
Beck has been campaigning since late August on an affordability platform, promising to suspend the provincial gas tax and not hike any other taxes in order to help residents struggling financially. The NDP has also promised rental protections, and has worked alongside nurses’ and teachers’ unions to highlight shortcomings in the provincial health-care and education systems.
Meanwhile, Moe (Rosthern-Shellbrook) held a 45 per cent approval rate as recently as September, according to the Angus Reid Institute, and appears poised for a campaign based on economic growth and major investments into public safety, classrooms and health care.
Moe’s government ended the most recent legislative session amid controversy, as long-serving MLA and Speaker Randy Weekes (Biggar-Sask Valley) – who had recently lost a Sask. Party nomination race – cut up his party membership and slammed his former party colleagues with allegations of bullying, misbehavior and harassment.
Premiers’ Performance: As Election Day looms for three, Eby up, Moe down, Higgs remains least approved-ofhttps://t.co/OMDLA2qESi pic.twitter.com/ZXDHzHCPAl
— Angus Reid Institute (@angusreidorg) September 19, 2024
Two other former Sask. Party MLAs – Greg Lawrence (Moose Jaw Wakamow) and Ryan Domotor (Cut Knife-Turtleford) are also sitting as independents after facing criminal charges, respectively for assault and communicating for the purposes of obtaining sexual services.
Another possible issue for the Sask. Party in the election is the fact that a number of incumbent MLAs, many of whom have have become familiar faces in provincial politics, have announced their decisions not to run again. The lengthy list includes Deputy Premier Donna Harpauer (Humboldt-Watrous), along with long-serving cabinet ministers Don McMorris (Indian Head-Milestone), Don Morgan (Saskatoon Southeast), Dustin Duncan (Weyburn-Big Muddy), and Gordon Wyant (Sasktoon Northwest). Wyant’s seat is the only one currently vacant in the assembly, as he resigned as an MLA in order to run for mayor in Saskatoon.
Tomorrow, the 2024 election campaign will officially begin.
The choice in this election is clear.
The Saskatchewan Party has a plan for a strong economy and a bright future.
The NDP has a record of decline, loss and closures.
Let’s never go back to that. Let’s keep our… pic.twitter.com/Qjj0uQ4q6t
— Scott Moe (@PremierScottMoe) September 30, 2024
The fall election will also present the first ballot test for the Saskatchewan United Party, which formed in 2022 after Wilson was turfed from the Saskatchewan Party caucus for misrepresenting her COVID-19 vaccine status. Wilson stepped down as leader in May, and the role was taken over by oil and gas CEO Jon Hromek. Hromek ran in the Lumsden-Morse byelection on August 10, finishing in second place behind the Sask. Party’s Blaine McLeod.
Education may play a major role in the fall vote, with the Saskatchewan Teachers’ Federation’s strike still fresh in the minds of many. While that dispute has gone to binding arbitration, the new contract has yet to be agreed on. Recent Sask. Party educational policies – which include a ban on cell phone use in classrooms and a policy requiring parents to be informed if a student under 16 wishes to change the name or pronouns used in the school – have also generated some controversy in the province, though both have also received a significant amount of support.
Health care will likely be another big issue at the polls across Saskatchewan. Despite the Sask. Party’s ongoing efforts to improve recruitment and retention and to increase capacity for hospitals and emergency departments, health-care unions and the NDP have been highlighting the issues caused by short-staffing and a lack of beds, particularly in Saskatoon and Regina.
Daniel Westlake, an associate professor of political studies at the University of Saskatchewan, told The Evan Bray Show in July that he thinks Moe’s Sask. Party – which secured 61.12 per cent of the vote in 2020 – is very likely to form government again after the election, though it may lose a few seats along the way.
“I still would expect, just based on the fundamentals, the Sask. Party (to) do a little bit worse than they’ve done in the past election,” Westlake said.
Westlake said the high cost of living, inflation and housing affordability will also likely be on the minds of voters across the province as they head to the polls.
–with files from The Evan Bray Show