Week 4: Voting matters and close race predictions on Evan Bray Show

The Evan Bray Show hosts a weekly panel this election season to discuss everything from seat predictions to voter turnout in Saskatchewan.

As the Saskatchewan election season progresses, Evan sits down with a regular panel each week until the election to discuss politics in the province. Evan is joined by John Gormley, lawyer, former Member of Parliament and host of The John Gormley Show, and Kevin Fenwick, Saskatchewan mediator and facilitator, former Deputy Minister of Justice and Saskatchewan’s former provincial ombudsman.

Evan Bray is joined by John Gormley, lawyer, former Member of Parliament and host of The John Gormley Show, and Kevin Fenwick, Saskatchewan mediator and facilitator, former Deputy Minister of Justice and Saskatchewan’s former provincial ombudsman. (Brittany Caffet/650 CKOM)

This week they debated Scott Moe’s stance on change rooms and they predicted a tight race, emphasized the importance of voting and choosing candidates based on merit.

Listen to Week 4 of the panel on The Evan Bray Show

Scott Moe’s discussion on change rooms, what comments do you have on this divisive issue in the province?

GORMLEY: I was incorrect last week. told you the NDP would stay away from this, the Parents Rights Act, aka pronouns. Within an hour of me saying that show up at the Minister of Education’s constituency office waving the multi colored flag, saying, we’re here for trans kids. Fran Forsberg, who is usually an NDP proxy trans mother, she was in the Star Phoenix. You had one other group.

This is dangerous for the NDP, because you talk to new Canadians in particular. I was chatting with a man from Ethiopia the other night. Got his Canadian citizenship first election, and he says to me, ‘I don’t want to be difficult.’ And I said, ‘Well, what are you concerned about?’ He said, ‘(The pronoun issue) That is the only issue I’m voting on.’ And I said, ‘So, who are you voting for?’ He says, ‘I’m voting for Scott Moe.’

This is an issue that I recommend people read Hilary Cass report. Dr. Cass, from York University, has done this inquiry into Tavistock, the gender changing clinic in the U.K. She undresses the gender ideology, it’s important. We have to give kids support, but it’s rooted in ideology, not in science.

Are we politicizing this issue?

GORMLEY: Young women have talked about the extraordinary discomfort and shame when one of their young female colleagues has a penis. Let’s be blunt, and that’s not appropriate. It’s rooted in ideology. It’s not rooted in genetics or science. Now that young woman with the penis deserves our support. She does not deserve with her proxies in the education system to intimidate other young girls.

Fenwick?

FENWICK: John started out by saying he was wrong last week when he said the NDP wouldn’t touch this. I was wrong last week when I complimented Scott Moe on keeping his temper and keeping that short fuse under control in the debate. This is an example of Scott Moe’s short fuse and his quick temper.

This is a very difficult issue. This is an issue that needs thoughtful consideration. It needs discussion with parents. It needs discussions with teachers. It needs discussion with school boards. It doesn’t need a knee jerk off the cuff reaction from a premier who is reacting to something that he’s just been told about.

This is what I don’t understand. We listened in April, May and June, over and over and over again, to the Minister of Education and the premier say that huge issues like classroom size and classroom complexity had to be left to the school boards the provincial government shouldn’t be decided. Those complex issues needed to be decided at the local level.

And yet, here we have with first the pronouns and this issue, the government deciding that it is going to kill a fly with a sledge hammer, in my opinion, take an issue that affects in a big way, but a very, very few people that needs to have, I believe, local kinds of decision making that they’re going to pass a law

GORMLEY: I would respectfully disagree with you. You’ve got school boards here who are playing with the activists. And again, let’s look at the Regina school board. Let’s look at a few others. So who’s going to be the adult in the room? And this is why I suggest people read Dr. Cass’s report. Finally, an adult in academia looked at this and said, we’ve got to look out for the kids, but we’ve got to stop doing things that hurt them.

FENWICK: And that’s a worthwhile discussion to have. My point is, is that it needs to be a discussion involving all of those players. And if, after you’ve had that discussion, the government is saying, Well, you know what? We need something more. Fine, then you need, you need to go that direction.

But this knee jerk reaction that I feel really sorry for this family and these kids who were outed with respect to this as well, and that may or may not have been Scott Moe’s fault. But this is not something that we should be using that provincial sledgehammer for.

There was a premier that I heard a number of years ago say at a meeting I was at it used to be, if we had a problem in society, somebody would say there ought to be a law. Well, today, there probably is. You might be shocked to hear that premier was actually Allan Blakeney. His point was, the law is a blunt instrument. It’s one size fit all, and it can’t apply well to every situation. This is a situation where we don’t need a provincial law, except as an absolute last resort. And we’re not there yet. And I think it’s Scott Moe’s temper to blame.

GORMLEY: I would argue we are there, given the way the school boards have handled this. But you and I will disagree on that.

Listen to Week 3 of the panel on The Evan Bray Show

It’s it one of these things to where I rooted around a little bit with some contacts I have at the school where this happened, and it would appear that the turmoil that’s been caused in the media and the discussion of this nowhere equates to what is actually happening.

They have a system set up where the students that are affected, that are involved, have a safe place to change. And there was one situation on an outing where this became a bit of a topical thing. A person went on social media and it got picked up and run with from there.

Is this something or nothing — that former Sask. Party members are shown standing behind Carla Beck?

FENWICK: This is the core of what’s going on in this election in my mind. I’ve said over the last couple of weeks that I think this election is going to turn on what happens with the moderates who used to be in the Sask. Party, in Brad walls big tent in that big group of people that he had.

Scott Moe has moved that tent to the right, and he’s made it smaller. And as Glen Hart said, and I think Ian Hanna said at that meeting, ‘I didn’t leave the Sask Party.’ He said, ‘the Sask Party left me.’

I think this election is going to turn on how many people there are that used to be in the Sask. Party who are prepared to park their vote, at least for one election with the NDP. And I think there’s a lot of them. There’s going

GORMLEY: There’s going to be a dilution, to be sure. Now, Ian Hanna, by the way, for the last two elections, has worked for the STF. So, Ian’s being a little rich when he’s drawing on his Sask. Party credentials. He’s with the Teachers Federation.

But Mark Docherty, no surprise, Randy Weekes, no surprise. But Glen Hart, I asked some questions. I don’t know Mr. Hart. I phoned out to his area and talked to a few people, and they said, Well, he was unhappy when he was the Deputy Speaker. Brad wall was very good to him. He’s felt lost in the party since then.

FENWICK: Glen Hart was my MLA for a large number of years. I really like Glen Hart. He’s a principled individual.

He gave a speech that I will always remember in the legislature. It was a reply to the Speech from the Throne, where MLAs get to talk about their constituencies a little bit. And the speech that he gave was on, we need to look, he said, as MLAs, at our conduct here in this legislature, and I need to think about whether we are proud of what we show here. And if my grandson was here, and he told a story about his grandson, would we be proud of what we’re and he said, not, we’re not proud. We need to work together. We need to be less adversarial. I think he is a gentleman and somebody I greatly respect, so I put a lot of stock in what he said last thursday.

GORMLEY: But, Glen got elected by strongly opposing an NDP government. So if Glen Hart signing up for the NDP, I’m curious.

Will we see some changes in the Regina Pasqua area, due to zone changes?

FENWICK: I don’t think it’s an area where you might see a change. I think it’s an area where you absolutely will be a change. I would be shocked if that particular riding doesn’t go NDP. I would be absolutely shocked. I think that’s in the NDP column. I think the NDP have it in their column, and, quite frankly, I think the Sask. Party have it in the NDP column.

GORMLEY: That’s one where I’ve got that leading to the NDP in my columns. But again, you’ve got to go back to the history of that riding. Is it winnable for the Sask. Party? Yes, but very, very tough.

What’s going to happen in the Saskatoon Riversdale area, since Marv Friesen is not running?

GORMLEY: this is one that the NDP will likely retake. Kim Breckner is the candidate. This was Roy Romanow seat right when Lorne Calvert needed a seat, he ran in it and was elected. So this is a seat that goes all the way back to the late 1960s NDP stronghold. Marv Friesen was an outlier. Marv could have held this seat. Without Marv I don’t see it going to Sask.

Any other areas you got your eye on here in terms of ridings to watch?

GORMLEY: Urban seats in general you want to watch? I’m not quite, of course, being me, I’m not quite as optimistic for the NDP as Kevin has been suggesting a big NDP sweep.

There are seats in both of Saskatoon and Regina, The Sask. Party will hold but there are a number of them in play. So this will be watch the city seats.

The other one that’s fascinating is Prince Albert Northcote, Sask. Party Alana Ross. This is a rematch again with Nicole Rancourt. The Sask. Party held that seat, then Rancourt held it, and now the Sask. Party holds it so watch PA Northcote is one.

Also in Moose Jaw, both of those seats are presently held by the Sask. Party. Moose Jaw North Tim McLeod, I think, will be in good shape. Moose Jaw Wakamow watch that. You’ve got the battling Pattersons, you’ve got the Sask. Party’s Megan Patterson, the NDP is Melissa Patterson. No relation, same name on the ballot, but that’ll be a very close race as well.

Fenwick?

FENWICK: A couple of that I’ll throw into the mix as well. Three, actually, one of those is Sask. Rivers, which we’ve talked about before. That’s the issue there is whether there’s enough Sask. United Party vote that peels off from from the Sask. Party to get the NDP. And I think that’s worth watching.

Yorkton is a seat that is in play that I wouldn’t thought of. Greg Ottenbreit was very, very popular there. Greg’s not running again. I think if you look at how many times both leaders have been in Yorkton, it tells you something. I think that seats in play now, and that’s a bit of a surprise for me, but I think it’s worth watching.

The one in Regina that I’m watching is Regina Wascana Plains. What everybody tells me is that the NDP are going to do extremely well in Regina. That’s the one that’s still in question. But it’s in question. It’s certainly in play.

GORMLEY: Okay, I would go, I would venture on some other Regina, but gee, Wascana Plains. That is the strongest, safest, Sask. Party seat right now.

Do you think because of the incumbent or do you think just generally, that seat is safe?

GORMLEY: Well generally when you look at the the voting history, you look at the socio economics, but Chris Tell has had that seat for four elections.

FENWICK: And so I’m a little bit surprised again like Yorkton.

GORMLEY: I’m not hearing Yorkton in play. I mean historically, and again, we always have to go back to history. The NDP do not win unless they clean up in the cities. They take P.A., Moose Jaw, and then they make a foothold into the smaller cities. The two smaller cities always in play are Yorkton and the Battlefords. So those are the two. You know, I’d begin watching in the reverse, if there’s an NDP Renaissance, what are the Battlefords in Yorkton looking like.

FENWICK: Sask. party has some struggle with its candidate in Yorkton. Young fellow who has, I am told, considerable ties to the Evangelical Christian Right. That doesn’t necessarily play well in Yorkton. There are other places in the province where that’s a concern for some within the Sask. Party, but that may be the reason that it’s put that constituency into play. I don’t know what the results going to be there, but it’s in play.

GORMLEY: Okay, I’ll watch it. It wasn’t on my list untill now.

Do you think the Sask. Party will grow their lead in Lumsden?

GORMLEY: Jon Hromek I am told, is a very nice man. But, people who want to dabble in politics without any real life experience, again, business guys love to lecture how much they know about politics. They wouldn’t hire me if I came in to run their oil company because I got no experience in oil. When the same dabblers think they can be politicians. Jon Hromek will likely run second. He will be so far behind he’s going to have to take my dog named Naked full speed to even be within sight of the Sask. Party.

Listen to Week 2 of the panel on the Evan Bray Show

What are your thoughts on tax relief or tax reform and health care?

GORMLEY: Cost of living is important, and we’ve just been through an inflation cycle we haven’t had since the late 70s, early 80s. So you know, it is what it is.

Health care is incredibly interesting. Incumbent governments are getting badly beaten up on health care. B.C. health care crisis, New Brunswick health care crisis. For anyone to believe Saskatchewan is unique in health care, access and funding issues, we’re not. It’s every single jurisdiction in Canada, arguably, post pandemic, there’s even a lot of private and semi private systems around the world under stress. Governments have to attend first priority to healthcare. Now, if you think healthcare is giving 1,2,3,6 billion to CUPE, SEIU and SUN, the big unions that drive the system, there’s not enough money in the world.

The problem with healthcare is structure, and we have to have some serious discussions on restructuring. Now the Sask. Party, with these walk in clinics that are one level different than ER, good first step, but they have to really be actioned.

The Sask.  Party took the worst waiting list in Canada, 2005-2007 made the shortest wait list in 2014. They took their eye off the ball, then they got the pandemic. Now we have long wait lists. So governments can do it, but you have to be nimble and thoughtful and structural. It’s not throwing money at big unions.

FENWICK: I’m going to be brief because I don’t disagree with anything John just said. As somebody who recently had a hip replacement and a shoulder replacement, and I can tell you that our health care once we get into the system, the health care is really good. It’s getting into the system, that’s the problem. And John’s right, we can’t just throw money on it.

It’s the same across Canada and nobody’s got a magic solution. You can’t wave the magic wand at it. The only thing that I struggle with in terms of what this government has done is this sudden realization that, gee, maybe we should be involving the nurses in this discussion. As they’ve as they’ve been asking for that and that kind of input for five years now, and on the eve of the election, the government decides that it’s going to appoint a Nursing Advisory Committee. Good on you. But my goodness, why have we waited so long?

Are we worried about how we’re paying for everything?

GORMLEY: We should always be worried deficits.

FENWICK: I’m a fiscal conservative. Actually, I’m a Keynesian economist. I believe that it’s okay for governments to run deficits in bad times as long as they run surpluses in good times to balance it out.

The challenge that left of center and right of center, or center right center left governments have is that if you’re right of center, you want to reduce taxes, but you need to have the political courage if you do that, to reduce programs, because you got to pay for them somehow.

If you’re a center left government, you have to have the courage to say, we got to have some taxes here that are going to pay for these social programs. The reason we run deficits is neither side of the political spectrum is prepared to have the courage to say, I’m going to do what’s unpopular with the voters and that’s a challenge.

GORMLEY: I would submit only in Saskatchewan historical review, the word deficit used to be the third rail. NDP, conservative, it didn’t matter. You ran a deficit. You were dead among the voters. Post pandemic, when we’ve had deficits that were historically large, I think the citizenry is prepared to accept reasonable deficits with a plan to end them. That wasn’t the history here 20 years ago. That’s a slight difference.

Are the New Brunswick and B.C. elections an indication of anything here in Saskatchewan?

No, the only indication is incumbency. Blaine Higgs has only done two terms, so you’ve got a longer history of liberal governments in New Brunswick. But again, he’s taken some positions that have been, for his base, very popular. For liberals, very unpopular.

B.C. is the reverse. They’ve had a more naturally NDP history lately that’s now certainly been trimmed back. But I think incumbency post pandemic is really struggling, and this is what Scott Moe is going to face. You’ve been through the pandemic. How do you to use the new word, reimagine the way you’re going to deliver services.

FENWICK: And I John’s hit the nail on the head, I think there. And it’s one of the campaign slogans from all parties that I just detest is it’s time for a change, because it tells us nothing. The NDP are using at this time, but it is a reality, and that’s when John’s talking about incumbency, that’s what it is. There’s maybe a change in in British Columbia, at least there’s been a shift.

There’s certainly a change in New Brunswick. That’s something that the Moe government is struggling with but there’s this tune that’s been in my head for the for the last week now, and it’s the theme from Ghostbusters. There’s something strange in the neighbourhood. There’s something strange in the neighborhood going on out there.

There’s a sense that I’m getting this isn’t my feeling, but it’s what I’m hearing over and over and over again from people who are talking to me, and some of them are texting me because of what we’re doing on this show, and they’re saying we can’t vote for this government anymore.

There are a lot of those centrists out there that are saying, I’m going to park my vote somewhere other than the Sask. Party this time around, the question is, how many you.

GORMLEY: I get you except you’ve got to ask the seminal question, What was the Sask Party founded for? It was founded to end years of vote splitting that the NDP had successfully engineered. 1934 till today, the NDP had 50% of the vote, four times. The Black Cat, white cat, mouse land parable was, keep the black cats and the white cats fighting so they leave The mice alone. The Sask. Party in four elections recently have had over 50% in every election. The last three, over 60%.

So, I ran into a good friend in Regina, former conservative strategist back in the day, Sask. Party strategist, she says this, pronouns, thing, healthcare, ‘I’m not voting for Scott Moe’. I looked at her and I said, I’ get that. I respect that. So you’re ready for an NDP government?’ She says, ‘God, no’. And I said, ‘Well, that’s exactly your choice.’ So I again, and I’m being very binary, but in this province, you have an NDP government, or you have a Sask. Party government.

FENWICK: And that was Brad Walls magic. Brad Walls magic was to take those liberals and the conservatives who formed the Sask. Party. That’s what the Sask. Party was. John is absolutely right. His magic was to make those people all feel comfortable in that big tent. They’re not. Now that’s that’s the Glen Hart’s and the Ian Hanna’s and and the others who are saying that this is no longer our party. And so the question is, are they?

I heard an ad this morning, actually, or a newspaper story about the Republicans against Trump who are reminding Republicans that it’s a secret ballot. You can actually vote Democrat this time around, and nobody will know. That’s what I think is going to happen with those moderate conservatives in Saskatchewan.

GORMLEY: Are we prepared for an NDP government? That many of them spent a lifetime saying this wasn’t our view of Saskatchewan.

FENWICK: That’s what the debate did. I think John, the debate that those people watched, because they were undecided, allowed them to look at Carla Beck and say, You know what, she’s not really a threat. I can park my vote there.

GORMLEY: Yeah, again, I saw her do okay in the debate. But then I contrasted, was she a Ryan Meili? Was she a Cam Broten was here. Was she a Dwain Lingenfelter, I didn’t sense that kind of comfort and Premier like capacity. But we’ll see.

Listen to Week 1 of the panel on The Evan Bray Show

Last week before the election, are you staying with your guess of 38 to 40 seats for the Sask. Party?

GORMLEY: I’m staying with 38 but I go as low as 36 so I’ve tabled down a couple of seats.

But again, I keep going over the history. Remember the NDP won 20 seats to Brad Walls, 38 in ’07. ’07 was not a big win. It was only later in 2011 the NDP dropped to nine seats. Then they have 10 seats the next election, then they have 13 the last election. So the NDP has really been pushed around. So if in this election, they come out with, you know, 23/24 seats, that is their biggest wins since ’07. I still see the Sask. Party winning, but I do see some NDP growth.

So, you’re saying the Sask. Party will win 36 to 38 of the 61 seats?

GORMLEY: That is my fearless prediction.

FENWICK: I’ve been talking about the trend. I’ve used the phrase today something strange in the neighbourhood. I’m just sensing that there’s a movement here. There’s that group of undecided. I’m moving my prediction up. 33 NDP.,28 Sask. Party.

If the Sask. Party wins, but it’s a closer election than what we’ve seen, does that change the way the Sask. Party governs?

GORMLEY: good point. I think it does, because there has been, and again, I don’t quite see the left right distinction in the Sask. Party quite the way Kevin does. But certainly, if you look at the Brad Wall Big Tent, you look at some of the Sask. Party moves, there has been a movement to the right.

If you’re going to sustain you have to shore up an urban strategy. Urban strategy is more female, it’s younger, it’s more on health care and education and family needs.

So the party has to make sure it’s pivoting that way. Does it do it under Scott Moe or I mean, he became premier in 2018 January. That’s a good long run. Plus he survived the pandemic. Which shortened the lifespan of many sitting politicians. So in any event, the Scott Moe have some questions to ask about his future after the election. I suspect he does.

FENWICK: I agree. And partisan politics aside, I think governments work best when there’s a strong opposition. It requires the government to talk more with the other side. It requires them to do more work in the committees and work together. So I think it does change what happens whoever wins this election. I think we all agree that there’s going to be a strong opposition match and so if that means that they need to work together more cooperatively, that’s a great thing.

Summarizing comments ahead of the election. 

Democracy is a very fragile thing. I’ve got three things I want to ask people to do, because our democracy is threatened.

Number one, get out and vote.

Number two, get out and vote. And take somebody with you to vote. Take your parent or your neighbour or whatever.

And number three, if you’re not sure who you’re going to vote for, if you just not into this partisan stuff, vote for a good person, regardless of what their party is. Pick somebody who’s intelligent and articulate and can work well with others.

And I’m going to throw out a couple of names for you, one from each side. Take a look at somebody like Warren Kaeding, who’s in Melville-Saltcoats, who is bright, articulate and is cooperative and will work with other people. And take a look at somebody like Brent Blakley in Regina Wascana Plains, who, again, has a background of cooperation. And vote for somebody who’s a good person so that they will be able to work together in the assembly.

GORMLEY: Interesting, I couldn’t agree more with what Kevin said. I would go vote for Jolene McLeod in Saskatoon-University. Kim Breckner in Saskatoon Riversdale, NDP candidate, very impressive. So you can find some very good, impressive candidates.

But the issue of voting is critical because people don’t understand. You look at these huge Sask Party wins in the country. Warren Kaeding is going to win with like. 65, 70% of the vote. There are ridings in the cities, NDP or Sask. Party that could be determined by under 200 votes, and likely will be. Well, 200 votes simply means, if one goes for them and not for you, that was only one vote. So that’s 100 people in about five or six constituencies, 100 people will decide who the MLA is. Wouldn’t it be terrible if it was you who sat home. Make sure you vote.

Editor’s note: This transcript has been edited for clarity.