Regina’s economy expected to grow by 2.5 per cent in 2025: Report

Regina’s economy can expect a much better year in 2025, according to a forecast from the Conference Board of Canada.

In its 2025 outlook report for Regina, the board predicted that the city’s economy will grow by 2.5 per cent this year, more than three times the estimated 0.8 per cent growth the city saw in 2024.

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“Consumer price inflation in Regina averaged an estimated 1.6 per cent in 2024,” the report added.

“Inflation is forecast to increase to around 2.0 per cent in 2025 and remain near this rate through to 2029, in line with the Bank of Canada’s target rate.”

Household income is expected to outpace inflation in the year ahead, with the report forecasting a 4.4 per cent growth in household income in 2025, slightly lower than the estimated 4.5 per cent rise in household income seen in 2024.

“Meanwhile, disposable income (after taxes and mandatory expenses) is expected to post stronger growth in 2025—4.8 per cent compared with 3.6 per cent last year,” the board’s report read. “Some of this gain will be the result of lower interest payments following the Bank of Canada’s rate cuts. Disposable income growth is expected to slow to 3.5 per cent in 2026.”

Employment numbers are also expected to rise, the report noted, with an estimated 1.5 per cent gain in the first quarter of 2025 and 0.4 per cent growth in the subsequent three quarters. Unemployment is expected to decline, reaching 4.6 per cent by 2028-29.

But while employment is expected to increase, the Queen City’s population growth is expected to slow this year, largely due to a drop in international migration. According to the outlook report, the region’s population is expected to rise by 2.2 per cent in 2025, a drop from the 3.6 per cent population growth Regina saw in 2024.

The election of Mayor Chad Bachynski in November “could prove to be a downside risk to our construction outlook” if he moves ahead with his plans for more strategic infrastructure spending to slow down property tax hikes, the board noted.

“Several large projects now in the planning stage required mill rate increases to be funded. Some of these may still be approved, but there is a risk that some projects could come back up for debate,” the report read.

Much of Canada is waiting anxiously to see of U.S. President Donald Trump moves ahead with his threats to apply hefty tariffs to Canadian products imported to the United States, and Regina is no exception.

“Significant new tariffs would hit some of Regina’s key industries, including agriculture, transportation and warehousing, and manufacturing,” the report noted.

When it comes to real estate, the report said housing demand has been strong in the Queen City, and the rise in population has led to a competitive market despite the currently high interest rates.

“The Bank of Canada’s ongoing rate-cutting cycle will alleviate some of the burdens on the new home market, but challenges remain in the form of elevated construction costs and an aging demographic among construction workers that will contribute to labour shortages,” the Conference Board of Canada wrote.

“Despite these challenges, housing starts are forecast to increase from about 1,200 last year to 1,660 this year. Housing starts are expected to continue to increase each year over the next few years, eventually reaching 2,000 starts by 2029.”

Most of the 1,660 new housing starts expected in 2025 are expected to be multi-unit buildings (1,200), with that split expected to continue over the coming years.

Meanwhile, Economic Development Regina released its prosperity matrix report for the first quarter of 2025, with an overall rating of “strong,” with stable growth and “manageable risks.”

The city’s manufacturing sector is a weak point, the organization noted, but a strong retail and housing index helped push the city’s score higher.

“This points to robust consumer activity and housing demand, a relatively stable labour market, and ongoing challenges in manufacturing – underscoring structural imbalances in the economy amid nationwide slowing conditions,” the report noted.