Spring runoff outlooks vary across Saskatchewan

Saskatchewan farmers could have a decent or a dry start to the planting year, depending on where they are in the province.

The Water Security Agency released its Spring Runoff Outlook on Friday.

It said conditions were dry for most of Saskatchewan at freeze-up due to below-average precipitation in the fall, and winter precipitation has varied.

The runoff in most of northern Saskatchewan and the southeast part of the province is expected to be below normal — in part because of below-normal snowpack in these areas.

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In most of central and part of southern Saskatchewan, the report said above-normal runoff is expected because of an above-normal snowpack and ice layers.

The results are nearly in line with the preliminary report released in February.

Through the rest of the winter, how much snow falls is expected to have a significant impact on runoff yields. The rate of melt is also expected to have a big effect — a slow melt would help recharge the soil column, while a fast melt would result in more runoff than anticipated.

(Water Security Agency 2025 Spring Runoff Report)

As of the report, melt runoff had already started in the Maple Creek area, lower areas of the Frenchman River and in the Old Wives Basin.

The report predicted above-normal runoff response for the area around Lake Diefenbaker, which provides more than 60 per cent of the province’s drinking water, and the Wascana Creek Basin. The report put that on heavy ice layers, which could create a greater runoff response.

The current operating plan for Lake Diefenbaker, according to the Water Security Agency, is to get to a target elevation in the lake of 553 m by mid-May, which is above normal for that time of year. At that elevation, the report said most needs can be met.

Reservoirs in the Souris River Basin and lakes within the Qu’Appelle River Basin are expected to see normal operating ranges this year. Lower flows and lake levels are expected in the Churchill River Basin because of dry conditions.

Above-normal runoff is expected in the Quill Lakes Basin.