Tariffs threat not built into Sask. 2025-26 budget

The Saskatchewan budget delivered Wednesday afternoon was normal in that it showed revenues and expenses, potash projections and spending on health care. What was notable was what wasn’t included in the estimates — the impact of the possible U.S.A. tariffs.

The tariff threat has been looming for months, with back-and-forth on when they might come down from the U.S., how much they might be and what they’d be on.

Saskatchewan Finance Minister Jim Reiter said there’s been a lot of confusion around what the U.S. president is doing.

“To say he’s been erratic and unpredictable is an understatement. We simply don’t know what tariffs the U.S. will ultimately impose and how long they will remain in effect — as a result, it was not possible to build the exact impact of the tariffs into the budget,” said Reiter.

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Other provinces, like Alberta and British Columbia, have worked assumptions about U.S. tariffs into their budget, but Reiter and his finance ministry weren’t interested in a contingency fund for the Saskatchewan budget.

Reiter said, those who have created a fund have done it using borrowed money.

“It’s not like they have a separate account of money that they’re setting aside just in case for contingency. It’s increasing an already existing deficit in their budget,” he explained.

If tariffs are on for any extended period of time, Reiter said, it will push the province into a deficit position. But that’s why he said the province worked hard to balance the budget this year.

“If we’re going into this with a billion-dollar deficit, or pick a number and then you add the tariffs on top of that and the effect on the economy, it could be very, very bad,” said Reiter.

The minister said his government focused on the commitments made in areas identified in the fall throne speech — health care, education, safer communities and affordability — and then tightened up spending in other areas. Reiter said there were other things his government had to say no to in order to get to a balanced position.

Reiter thinks the way the government is dealing with the tariffs is comparable to how a household might.

“I don’t think people are saying ‘Well, I’m going to budget X number of dollars tariffs.’ Most people who are good with their finances are going to look at this and say ‘You know, there’s some uncertainty in the world right now, so I’m going to make sure I’ve got enough money to cover all my bills, going to make sure I can handle something unforeseen,’” he explained.

In past years, finance ministers have cited a crop failure as something that keeps them up at night related to the budget; this year, Reiter said it’s the tariffs.

“As far as how it impacts the budget and how it’s just going to impact the economy overall. We have an export-based economy. People that talk protectionism it always bothers me. I mean free trade is good for Saskatchewan, it’s good for the country and frankly it’s good for North America,” he said.

The Saskatchewan Opposition NDP said the presented budget wasn’t based in reality.

“This budget has no plans for our economy; this is a budget that pretends as if the last three months haven’t even happened,” said NDP Leader Carla Beck.

She panned the budget for not having any measures to protect workers, businesses or industries from the tariff threat.

“This budget will be of very little comfort to all those families out there in this province right now who’re worried about their jobs and their futures because of Donald Trump’s tariffs,” she said.

Beck also called it irresponsible not to have a contingency fund worked into the budget.