Moe, Shahab react to SHA’s modelling for COVID-19

The Saskatchewan Health Authority’s most dire model for COVID-19 in the province truly is a worst-case scenario for Premier Scott Moe.

In that model, Saskatchewan could lose more than 8,000 residents to the virus.

“I wake up each and every morning waiting for the (latest testing) numbers to come in just praying that there isn’t a death today,” Moe said during a media conference Wednesday, just hours after the SHA released its projections. “That’s what I do every morning.

“So to have a model come out that indicates that over the next period of time there could be 8,000 deaths, that for me personally is tremendously alarming and it strengthens my resolve to ensure that we need to continue to deal with this in exactly the way we have been in this province.”

On Wednesday, the government announced there were 11 new cases in the province but 15 more people had recovered.

It’s the second time this week that the number of recoveries announced by the province had exceeded the number of new cases. On Monday, the government said that 14 people had recovered while there were four new positive tests.

The projections in the SHA’s model ranged from more than 400,000 cases and 8,000 deaths in the worst-case scenario to 153,000 cases and 3,000 deaths in its third model.

Dr. Saqib Shahab — Saskatchewan’s chief medical health officer — said the province obviously wants to be better than the latter scenario, but that requires the continued efforts of residents to limit the size of gatherings, wash their hands, practise physical distancing and stay home.

“If you look at the worst-case scenario — the no-intervention scenario — that was a reality if we had done nothing four to six weeks ago,” Shahab said. “If we had just continued business as usual, right now we could have really been on the upslope of a very bad situation where the health system is not prepared and we are seeing a very catastrophic situation.

“A lot of work was done, which included everyone in Saskatchewan for the most part really behaving very differently over the last four weeks and that has already changed that trajectory.”

Moe said there aren’t any plans to lift any of the current restrictions put in place by the government or to add any new ones.

While some of the current restrictions are impacting businesses in the province — some companies deemed non-essential were ordered to close — Moe said he thinks often about jumpstarting things once the pandemic eases.

“That would be the second thing that I think about every morning is the impact on the economy of what these past few weeks and likely the next number of weeks are going to have on our economy and how we are going to enter the recovery phase of the Saskatchewan economy,” he said.

Moe said more details would be released Thursday about the government’s plan to support businesses and families.

A look at the numbers

As of Wednesday, 103 people have been declared recovered. The 11 new cases increase that total to 271.

There have been three deaths to date.

There are eight people in hospitals across the province, an increase of one from Tuesday’s update. Six people are receiving inpatient care — four in Saskatoon, one in Regina and one in the northern region — while Regina and Saskatoon each have one patient in intensive care.

Of the 271 cases, 119 are travellers, 90 are community contacts (including mass gatherings) and 16 don’t have any known exposures. Public health officials are investigating the other 46 cases.

According to the government, 26 of the cases are health-care workers, but it stressed the source of their infections may not be related to their jobs. A number of health-care providers contracted the virus at a curling bonspiel in Edmonton.

“It’s just a recognition that health-care workers (and) other essential workers put themselves at risk by providing essential services,” Shahab said. “They obviously have to do everything they need to do to keep themselves safe and we have to do everything as individuals to keep them safe in terms of accessing those services.”

Of the total number of cases, 135 are from the Saskatoon area, 56 live in the Regina area, 51 are from the northern region of the province, 15 reside in the south, 10 are from the central region and four are from the far north.

The number of cases among people aged 65 and over increased by five from Tuesday’s update; there now are 48 cases in that age range. There also were two more cases in each of the 19-and-under age group (for a total of 15), the 20-to-44 range (for a total of 114) and the 45-to-64 age range (94).

Testing ramping up

The province recorded a new single-day high in tests performed, with 899. That increased the total to date to 15,621.

Moe wants those totals to increase more in the coming days.

“I have asked the Saskatchewan Health Authority to set a target of getting to 1,000 tests per day as soon as possible and to try to get to 1,500 tests per day by the end of April, which will be dependent of course on being able to access the necessary testing supplies,” Moe said.

The SHA also is asking medical students at the University of Saskatchewan to help out with contact tracing. Moe said that if more people are needed in that area, nursing students in the province will be recruited.