CMHC predicts drastic drop in housing prices, Sask. home builders skeptical

Saskatchewan’s home builders aren’t buying national predictions for housing price drops due to COVID-19.

The Saskatoon and Region Home Builders’ Association (SRHBA) and Regina and Region Home Builders’ Association (RRHBA) released a joint statement on Monday, disputing a Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) analysis of what the pandemic’s economic toll will mean for housing prices.

The CMHC 2020 housing outloook predicts housing prices across Canada will fall between nine and 18 per cent in the second half of 2020, before rebounding in 2021. It also suggests the number of home sales could drop between 19 and 29 per cent.

SRHBA CEO Chris Gurette told 650 CKOM in an interview Monday it’s hard to use national numbers to assess what will happen to the housing market in Saskatchewan.

“It’s really difficult to talk nationally about housing when it’s such a local issue,” she said.

Both Saskatchewan-based associations have pointed to the fact that housing prices have so far remained stable through the first two-and-a-half months of the pandemic, though there has been a decrease in new listings — specifically when it comes to more expensive homes.

Gurette said the picture could end up looking very different in major Canadian markets like Toronto and Vancouver, as opposed to the housing landscape in Saskatchewan.

She noted there are different provincial rules that could buoy the industry in Saskatchewan, such as the PST rebate for new home builds.

“Our industry has been quite resilient amidst all this,” she said.

So far, there may be evidence of more home construction activity. The latest permit report from SRHBA showed a 30 per cent increase in permit activity for single family homes.

Ultimately, Gurette suggested this may be an opportune time for those with a stable income to get into the housing market.

“This is a great time,” she said.

“Interest rates are low and they’re going to stay that way for awhile. You just need to be wary and educate yourself.”