‘Escalation’ in COVID-19 cases if public health measures relaxed, says Blondeau

Despite declining cases of COVID-19, a Saskatchewan expert in infectious diseases warns there could be a large spike if people do not continue adhering to public health orders.

The province has seen its seven-day average of daily new cases drop to 153 cases per day.

On a per-capita basis, Saskatchewan is seeing 12.6 new cases per 100,000 people. Active cases have fallen below 2,000, although the province still leads the country on a per-capita basis.

“I think the case numbers are going down because we have had a significant percentage of the population that have been adherent to the public health orders,” said Dr. Joseph Blondeau.

“And the one thing that will change those numbers in a hurry is if we all decide that we’re not going to pay attention anymore.”

Speaking to Gormley on Monday, Blondeau said people are starting to tire of the restrictions. He pointed out the warmer weather and how people “want nothing more than a little taste of normality.”

The vaccine program also contributes to what’s been called “COVID fatigue.”

“People are saying, ‘Maybe I don’t have to be as diligent anymore,’ and that’s simply not the case,” Blondeau said.

Health officials are warning about a third wave fuelled by more contagious variants of the coronavirus.

Last week, new modelling data was released, saying there could be up to 20,000 new cases per day by mid-March if restrictions are eased.

The big question for many is whether COVID-19 vaccines will still be effective against new strains.

Blondeau said vaccines are still doing “quite well” against the variant called B117, which was first identified in the United Kingdom.

He added one study on the South African variant showed “there was a reduction in efficacy of the antibodies that they have in neutralizing the virus.”

“However, the authors are very, very quick to point out, though, that that doesn’t necessarily translate into a vaccine failure clinically,” Blondeau said.

“We need to be very, very careful to separate some in-vitro laboratory modelling from what’s actually happening in the clinical world.”

The threats new variants pose underscore the importance of precautions most people have grown accustomed to: Staying within their bubble, wearing masks and washing their hands.

“I think that every country that has the variants will actually see an escalation in cases if we see a dramatic relaxation in public health restrictions,” Blondeau said.

— With files from The Canadian Press