Political scientist doesn’t see spring election coming

Don’t expect the federal Liberals to trigger a spring election in Monday’s budget, says a Regina political scientist.

Given multiple provinces are struggling to contain the third wave of COVID-19, Jim Farney says the government would want to avoid a situation like that in Newfoundland and Labrador, where in-person voting had to be called off due to an outbreak. The results of the March election have also been challenged in court.

“I don’t think any government’s going to want that, so maybe we’re looking at something in the fall,” said Farney, the Regina director at the Johnson Shoyama Graduate School of Public Policy.

“And that might be why the kind of borrowing numbers and even the programming stuff might be a little bit more restrained. I think if it was a pre-election budget they’d be much more likely to break open the piggy bank.”

The federal deficit for 2020-21 was forecast to be at least $381 billion. Farney believes pandemic benefits will continue for a while.

“I don’t think there’s a good policy reason to cut those off quickly. The economy’s still a long way from recovery. Employment’s still along way from recovery,” he said.

“Even if the really bad ICU numbers … or lockdowns come to an end this summer, we’re a year and a half away from getting back to where we were.”