Shahab recommends caution, not restrictions, amid potential Omicron surge

Saskatchewan’s top doctor says Omicron numbers are expected to rise in the province — it’s just a question of when and how much.

Chief medical health officer Dr. Saqib Shahab says Omicron is also all but certain to become Saskatchewan’s dominant variant.

“We aren’t seeing the surge right now,” Shahab told reporters Tuesday.

He said so far, the variant appears to be highly transmissible, and while it seems to be less severe than previous variants or the original strain of the COVID-19 virus, quickly growing case numbers could still put significant strain on the health system again — just shortly after the province gained ground against its fourth wave.

New modelling data made available by the government Tuesday shows Omicron could increase new daily COVID- cases by up to five times, as well as double current hospitalizations and ICU admissions by this time next month.

The modelling data is predicated on the province’s current public health restrictions and interventions.

Derek Miller, chief of emergency operations with the Saskatchewan Health Authority (SHA), said Tuesday officials are working “behind the scenes” to prepare to react quickly in case of a surge of cases.

So far, no individuals with Omicron have been hospitalized in Saskatchewan.

Still, there are no further restrictions in the province for holiday gatherings, apart from the existing mask mandate and proof of vaccination or negative COVID test requirements.

“At the end of the day, as we progress through the pandemic, as long as we’re not putting pressure on the health-care system, a lot of these have to be personal decisions,” Shahab said.

He said a certain amount of personal responsibility must be taken when approaching the holidays to find a balance that will allow people to be in a positive mental health space while also protecting their physical health.

If a surge of Omicron cases comes, that could mean restrictions sometime in the future, like limiting public venues to half capacity, Shahab said.

Scenarios included in the modelling data assume the Omicron variant is much more transmissible than Delta.

The province said Omicron could double its spread across the province in 5.2 days. Other jurisdictions in Canada, like Ontario and Quebec, have reported Omicron doubling anywhere from 1.5 days to three days.

By Jan. 20, without further restrictions, the province could be reporting more than 300 new COVID-19 cases per day — similar to the cases reported in mid-October.

Hospitalizations could surpass 200 by Jan. 20 and ICU admissions could increase to more than 60.

With additional restrictions, the modelling data suggests all three markers could decrease from current levels.

To help reduce the risk of infection, the province is suggesting everyone get the vaccine and booster as soon as they are eligible to receive it, use a mask whenever outside of their home, take a rapid test before attending any event, stay home with even the mildest symptoms, and reduce contacts and any non-essential travel.

The modelling scenarios are based on limited evidence, particularly on severity and hospitalization risk surrounding the Omicron variant.

As of Dec. 15, more than 8.6 million rapid test kits have been distributed in the province. Residents can pick them up at one of more than 500 distribution centres.