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Though he declined to directly address comments repeated by the premier this week, Saskatchewan’s chief medical health officer explained why daily case numbers might mislead someone into thinking that COVID vaccines provide no protection against infection.
On the weekend and earlier this week, Premier Scott Moe asserted that vaccines no longer provide protection against contracting COVID. He doubled down when asked about experts who disagree, appearing to point to percentages of new cases in vaccinated people in daily case numbers and saying he’s just going by the data.
During Thursday’s COVID-19 technical briefing, Dr. Saqib Shahab was asked several times about the premier’s statement.
Shahab declined to comment directly on what he thought of it and whether it was a falsehood. But Shahab did explain why relying on the daily case numbers might create such an opinion.
Shahab said the daily case numbers can be “misleading,” and even the monthly breakthrough case reports could seem to suggest that vaccines don’t prevent transmission.
“If you look at daily case numbers that we report, that can lead to an interpretation that is different from vaccine effectiveness studies that I certainly review,” Shahab said.
But Shahab explained that the population those daily case numbers are pulling from skews what the numbers are saying.
“We know that if you are older, if you are fully vaccinated (and) boosted, you’re more likely to go for PCR testing – and that trend will only increase from next week,” he predicted.
According to Shahab, about 80 per cent of the eligible population is vaccinated, about 50 per cent of those eligible are boosted, and about 80 per cent of those 80 years old and up are boosted.
Those are the people who are more likely to get a PCR test, and some of them will be the only ones allowed to get a PCR test when stricter criteria come into effect next week.
Most of Saskatchewan is being encouraged to use rapid tests, the results of which aren’t reported, and some won’t test and will just isolate for the five days, according to Shahab.
Recent studies Shahab said he’s reviewed show the vaccines do offer some protection against infection, and therefore transmission, though the protection is less if a person only has two doses and it wanes after a while with the third.
“I think there’s a definite role for vaccinations in preventing serious outcomes (and) a lesser role with Omicron in reducing transmission, hence our reliance on other health measures like mask use,” said Shahab.
The vaccine worked much better against the Delta strain, but when Omicron came along, Shahab said health officials started seeing more breakthrough cases, which is why they moved up and expanded the booster program.
“And now booster doses remain critical to prevent severe outcomes – they have some impact for up to 10 weeks, three months, in reducing your risk of acquiring and transmitting COVID,” Shahab said.
Moe’s belief in the inefficacy of vaccines was one of the reasons he gave for removing the proof of vaccination or negative test policy for the province by the end of February.
When asked his opinion on that course of action, Shahab said the province is certainly in a better place than it was and he believes cases have peaked. But at the same time, Shahab said that doesn’t mean everything should be thrown away; he said hospitalizations likely will continue going up until they peak in a week or two.
“We still need to stay the course with everything we are doing including maintaining the current orders that are in place at this point to the end of February,” he said.
Shahab said there will come a time when, as the province moves its response to COVID closer to its response to other respiratory viruses, the public health mandates will need to be retired.
Vaccine or test in the SHA
The Saskatchewan Health Authority(SHA) said it’s going to keep promoting people to get three COVID shots.
“(That’s) as a means to prevent the potential impact of COVID on individuals but also in terms of spreading to friends and family and more broadly,” Derek Miller, the interim COO of the SHA, said.
If and when the government drops the vaccination policy for the province, Miller said the SHA will have to reassess its policy for staff. Miller said it’s a key strategy to maintain a safe work environment for staff, patients and residents.
“At this point, there are no plans for a change in the SHA proof of vaccine or monitored testing program,” he said.
The authority would also have to take a look at the policy for visitors to its facilities like long-term care centres.
“At this point in time we do believe our proof of vaccine policy within our facilities is having an impact in supporting a safe environment for our patients, residents and staff,” Miller said.