Russia-Ukraine war could have significant implications for international order: U of S lecturer

The war between Ukraine and Russia could be responsible for a new cold war that engages more nations and is inherently unstable.

“(That) is really frightening from an international relations perspective,” said Dr. Martin Gaal, a lecturer in the department of political studies and co-ordinator for the global studies certificate at the University of Saskatchewan.

He said the situation in Ukraine right now is “absolutely tragic.”

“The human cost is horrific and it’s unfortunate we need to think of this as well in terms of the geopolitical aspect and in no way do I want to diminish the lived experience of the people suffering,” Gaal said.

However, he said there are a few things he finds fascinating in the midst of the conflict as someone with a research background in areas like international relations, foreign policy analysis and European politics.

History in the making

Gaal said Russia has been telegraphing for some time that Ukraine is within its “sphere of influence” — something that was shown during gas disputes between the two countries in 2004, the annexation of Crimea about a decade later and the placing of non-badged Russian military personnel in Ukraine’s Donbas region.

Despite that history, Gaal said the West likely never thought war would break out between Russia and Ukraine. Instead, he hypothesized that something similar to Crimea would happen again.

“Everybody thought, ‘This is done. This is history. This doesn’t happen anymore,’ ” Gaal said.

This war represents the first major military conflict in Europe — in terms of a great power seeking to expand its range of power using military force — since the Second World War.

Russia’s choice to pursue this type of invasion is interesting, Gaal said.

With the West known for having a short attention span, a low-intensity conflict where Russia expands its influence and control over time would have been unlikely to attract many consequences.

The suddenness and the degree to which the attack on Ukraine has unfolded, with the aim to overthrow the Ukrainian government and put a Russia-backed leader in place, does not fit that mold.

Gaal said it does make sense, though. He said the way the world has been working — under rules set out in 1945 at the end of the Second World War — has been under increasing strain since 2000, as powers have retreated from responsibilities, lessening the abilities of the United Nations.

Donald Trump coming to power in the United States in 2016 broke a lot of trust between that country and other nations who feared they wouldn’t have the support of the U.S. to the same extent.

Though Joe Biden is now in power and trying to regain that trust, Gaal explained, the U.S. seems unwilling to lead because of its own numerous problems, and thus the world seems unwilling to follow.

“It’s creating a vacuum and what’s emerging is a move towards a power-based international order,” Gaal said.

He compared it to the 19th century, when various actors were trying to solidify their own areas of influence.

“Ukraine was a trip wire for them,” Gaal explained, calling moves made now by Russian president Vladimir Putin delicate.

“Putin is gambling that the West is unable or unwilling to oppose them and that international law and the rule-based system is unable to apply meaningful sanctions,” Gaal said.

But the Russian president has a reason for some confidence, Gaal said. Even if financial sanctions and penalties cut him off from funding from the West, Putin has been building a relationship with China that could offer him aid.

“I don’t think the sanctions will work,” Gaal said. “Putin is a very canny individual and he’s a gambler.”

Through this most recent conflict, Gaal said China has provided limited comments, mentioning the sovereignty of Ukraine should be respected but also lifting a wheat ban with Russia, allowing access to goods and financial supports.

A world of implications

According to Gaal, one of the biggest worries about this conflict from an international order perspective is that this is a significant test of the political and economic orders established in 1945. If those powers don’t hold, and great powers or revisionist states like China believe Russia has shown a better way for them to achieve their interests, it could spell trouble and more conflict.

Gaal said he could see something more overt than the Russia-Ukraine war with China and Taiwan and Hong Kong could be a target, as well.

With Europe dependent on a lot of natural gas from Russia, sanctions and a lack of anything more coming from the West will signal that “the West isn’t willing to put their own interests at stake in trying to oppose those great powers from solidifying their spheres of influence.”

Gaal also predicted possible happenings in South America with Venezuela or Brazil or something happening in the Middle East with Iran or Saudi Arabia.

“It has a whole lot of implications in terms of how the world is going to work after this,” Gaal said.

A breakdown of the current world order might mean a reversion to a multipolar world.

A colder war

A multipolar world involves more than a bipolar would, Gaal said, which is concerning.

He explained that realists would argue a bipolar cold war is one of the most stable systems we can have.

“The two states check each other and make sure nothing gets out of hand,” Gaal said. “When you start to get into the multipolar world, you get triangles and other power relationships that are a lot less stable.”

It’s not a World War III example exactly, but a multipolar cold war would involve more nations than the cold war of the last century between the United States and the Soviet Union. Squares and triangles forming to keep each other in check is not nearly as solid for predicting an outcome.

That sort of order, Gaal said, is less rule-based too — rules exist and are negotiated, but much thinner and less substantive — and don’t check states from doing things they believe to be in their own best interest.

“You’ll see then a more aggressive China (and) a more aggressive Russia. Other regional powers will become more aggressive in seeking to solidify their spheres of influence,” Gaal said.