WSA says water shortage could result in southwest after spring runoff

The Water Security Agency says producers in southwestern Saskatchewan could face water supply issues in 2023.

After drought conditions hit areas of Saskatchewan in the fall, the agency’s preliminary spring runoff outlook said a slow melt this spring would likely result in the snowpack “recharging the soil column.” A fast melt, however, is required to result in surface water supplies improving.

“The current snowpack is likely insufficient to satisfy both,” said a media release accompanying the report. “Without additional snowfall, surface water supply issues are likely to occur in southwestern Saskatchewan in 2023.”

However, the dry conditions seen in the province in the fall could mean below-normal runoff in many areas of Saskatchewan in the spring.

According to the report, the exceptions are the northwest, central and southeast areas of the province, which are expected to see near-normal runoffs.

“Well below-normal runoff is expected in the Maple Creek area where mid-winter melts have depleted the snowpack,” the release said. “South of the Cypress Hills and in the southeast, near-normal snowmelt runoff is expected.

“Central areas of the province and the northwest are also expected to experience near-normal snowmelt runoff. With a below-normal snowpack, areas in the far northeast are expected to see a below-normal snowmelt runoff.

“While much of southern Saskatchewan has a snowpack that is thought to be near to above normal, dry conditions at freeze-up, particularly over areas west of Swift Current and Outlook over to the Alberta border, are expected to reduce runoff yields. This may result in minimal replenishment of surface water supplies within this area and potentially some shortages later in 2023. At this time, the risk of snowmelt related flooding in the province is low.”

The agency said its forecast for runoffs is based on factors that include the conditions at freeze-up, the snowfall received to date and potential expected further precipitation between now and spring melt.

It warned the outlook could change since there are another eight to 10 weeks of winter remaining.

“The snowpack is generally above to well above normal to date in the central areas; however, flooding is not expected despite the predicted above-normal runoff response,” the WSA said. “The far north, encompassing the areas of Uranium City, Stony Rapids and Cluff Lake, are anticipated to experience a near-normal runoff event.”

The first spring runoff forecast will be issued in early March.