Senior climatologist predicts warmer fall for Regina

It looks like fall will be warmer than normal in Regina and the Queen City should see more precipitation than usual.

David Phillips, a senior climatologist with Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC), told the Greg Morgan Morning Show on Monday he expects Regina to not see frost in September for only the fifth time in 125 years.

“I’ve looked to the records at the end of the month and there’s no way (the city will) have a frost,” Phillips said. “Clearly, there will be frost on the pumpkin (in October).”

Astronomical fall arrived early Saturday with the autumnal equinox, Environment and Climate Change Canada meteorologist Justin Shelley said Friday. He said that’s when the sun is directly over the equator, providing us with equal daylight between day and night.

However, Shelley and his colleagues look at the meteorological seasons; that began on Sept. 1 and goes until the end of November.

According to Phillips, there were more than 20 days in September which saw temperatures rise above 20 C.

“(Regina) would normally have 13 of those guys,” he said.

According to the ECCC forecast for this week, daytime highs for Monday are expected to reach 23 C and 25 C in Regina and Saskatoon, respectively.

In contrast, the normal high for this time of year would be 16 C in Regina and 15 C in Saskatoon.

Looking at the weather models for October, Phillips added hot air should keep coming into the prairies.

“The oceans around the country are like hot tubs out there and they’re helping to keep this warm air coming (with) a big ridge over the Prairies,” he added. “We see that carrying on through October and into November, so the fall forecast is warmer than normal.”

Phillips predicted more precipitation should fall than normal.

“Some of that might be snow, but that’s good for the farmers,” he said. “The harvest is pretty well completed. (They’re) finishing up a few little things, so they need the moisture for next week.”

Phillips acknowledged it has been a few years  since the forecast for September and October predicted temperatures that are well above normal.

“July was maybe a half-degree cooler than normal, but still wonderful, so it’s really been on a roll since May,” he added.

According to Phillips, October typically is about 7 C cooler than September.

“That’s the threshold that we’re comparing this coming October to, but (there will be) a lot of southern air (and) Pacific air,” he said. “Polar vortex is a thing of the past.”