AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Arkansas’ state and presidential primaries

WASHINGTON (AP) — President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump will compete for votes in Arkansas on Tuesday but not against each other. At least not yet.

Both front-runners are already eyeing a rematch of the 2020 presidential election, and the race in Arkansas as well as 15 other states holding contests on Super Tuesday could put them both within arm’s reach of clinching their parties’ respective presidential nominations. Arkansas will also hold primaries for state and local offices, including for U.S. House, the state legislature and state Supreme Court.

In the GOP primary in Arkansas’ 3rd District, incumbent Steve Womack is seeking an eighth term but faces a challenge from the right from state Sen. Clint Penzo.

Trump’s main opponent on the Arkansas primary ballot is former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley. On the Democratic side, Biden faces challenges from U.S. Rep. Dean Phillips of Minnesota and self-help author Marianne Williamson, who suspended her campaign Feb. 7 only to “unsuspend” it and reenter the race three weeks later. Both Trump and Biden have won every contest of the primary campaign so far by wide margins.

A win on Tuesday would mark Biden’s second consecutive victory in an Arkansas presidential primary and a third consecutive for Trump. Arkansas has held Super Tuesday primaries in four of the past five presidential campaigns.

Former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson will also appear on the Republican primary ballot, even though he ended his campaign in January after the candidate line-up was locked in. He was the latest in an almost uninterrupted streak of current or former Arkansans to run for president. Former Gov. Mike Huckabee ran in 2008 and 2016, as did former Arkansas first lady Hillary Clinton. Retired Gen. Wesley Clark sought the Democratic nomination in 2004, and former Gov. Bill Clinton ran successfully in 1992 and 1996.

Here’s a look at what to expect on election night:

ELECTION DAY

The Arkansas presidential and state primaries will be held on Super Tuesday, March 5. Polls close at 8:30 p.m. ET.

WHAT’S ON THE BALLOT

The Associated Press will provide coverage for the Democratic and Republican presidential primaries. The Democratic candidates are Biden, Phillips, Williamson and three others. The Republican candidates are Trump, Haley, Florida businessman David Stuckenberg and former candidates Ryan Binkley, Doug Burgum, Chris Christie, Ron DeSantis, Hutchinson and Vivek Ramaswamy. Other races on the ballot include primaries for U.S. House, state Senate and state House and positions on the state Supreme Court.

WHO GETS TO VOTE

Any registered voter may participate in the primary. Voters in Arkansas do not register by party.

DELEGATE ALLOCATION RULES

There are 31 pledged Democratic delegates at stake in Arkansas, and they’re awarded according to the national party’s standard rules. Seven at-large delegates are allocated in proportion to the statewide vote, as are four PLEO delegates, or “party leaders and elected officials.” The state’s four congressional districts have a combined 20 delegates at stake, which are allocated in proportion to the vote results in each district. Candidates must receive at least 15% of the statewide vote to qualify for any statewide delegates, and 15% of the vote in a congressional district to qualify for delegates in that district.

Republicans have 40 delegates at stake. Every candidate who receives 15% of the vote receives one of 28 statewide delegates. The remaining statewide delegates go to the candidate who wins a majority of the vote. If no candidate gets 50%, candidates who surpass 15% divide the remaining statewide votes proportionally. Each of the four congressional districts awards three delegates using similar rules.

DECISION NOTES

Arkansas has the kind of conservative electorate and voting history that are well-suited for Trump in what’s essentially a two-way match-up with Haley. Trump has dominated in previous 2024 primary contests in heavily Republican and Republican-leaning areas. Haley has done best in heavily Democratic areas, though she hasn’t performed nearly as well in these areas as Trump has among his base. Trump narrowly won the 2016 Arkansas primary over U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz in a much more competitive nomination fight. Former Ohio Gov. John Kasich, from what was often described as the “moderate lane” of candidates that year, was a distant fifth place with 4%. Trump also has the backing of the state’s political establishment, chief among them Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders, his former White House press secretary. Hutchinson’s appearance on his home state’s primary ballot won’t have an impact on the outcome, but if the former candidate were to see a small boost in votes on any of the ballots where his name still appears, it would probably be here.

For the Democrats, Biden has faced only nominal opposition from Phillips and Williamson and heads into the contest as the overwhelming front-runner.

Some elections on the ballot are eligible to go to a runoff if there are more than two candidates on the ballot. The top two candidates would advance if none received more than 50% of the vote.

The AP does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it’s determined there is no scenario that would allow the trailing candidates to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.

WHAT DO TURNOUT AND ADVANCE VOTE LOOK LIKE

Turnout in the 2022 state primaries was 5% of registered voters in the Democratic primaries for governor and U.S. Senate and 20% in the Republican primaries.

As of Thursday, nearly 84,000 voters had cast ballots before Election Day, about 27% in the Democratic primary and about 70% in the Republican primary. In the 2022 primaries, pre-Election Day voting made up about 52% of the total vote in the Democratic statewide primaries and about 49% in the Republican contests.

HOW LONG DOES VOTE COUNTING USUALLY TAKE?

In the 2022 primary election, the AP first reported results at 8:44 p.m. ET, or 14 minutes after polls closed. The election night tabulation ended at 3:18 a.m. ET with about 99% of total votes counted.

ARE WE THERE YET?

As of Super Tuesday, there will be 132 days until the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, 167 days until the Democratic National Convention in Chicago and 245 until the November general election.

Robert Yoon, The Associated Press