AP Decision Notes: What to expect in the March 12 presidential contests

WASHINGTON (AP) — Super Tuesday put former President Donald Trump within reach of clinching his third consecutive Republican presidential nomination, but it may be Republican voters in Georgia, Hawaii, Mississippi and Washington who put him over the top.

The four states have a combined 161 delegates at stake on Tuesday, and Trump will need to win the lion’s share of them in order to become the presumptive nominee. But with his main rival for the nomination, former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley, no longer in the race, there are no remaining obstacles in his way.

President Joe Biden also won hundreds of delegates on Super Tuesday and could officially clinch the nomination on Tuesday.

The Associated Press allocated delegates from Delaware and Florida to Biden on Friday, as both states have canceled their Democratic presidential primaries, with all their delegates going to the sitting president. With that allocation, Biden’s first possible date to clinch moves up to March 12, when he needs to win just 40% of the available delegates to do so.

Biden will be on the primary ballots in three states on Tuesday, Georgia, Mississippi and Washington. The date will also mark the conclusion of party-run contests in the Northern Mariana Islands and Democrats Abroad, an organization of Democratic U.S. citizens who live in other countries. Democrats Abroad functions like a state for the purposes of the presidential nomination process.

Biden will face self-help author Marianne Williamson in four contests. He will also face a rematch with Democrat Jason Palmer in the Northern Marianas primary. Palmer unexpectedly won a 91-person vote in American Samoa on Super Tuesday, picking up three delegates along the way. “Uncommitted” has also won delegates in Michigan, Minnesota and Hawaii and will be on the ballot Tuesday in Washington.

Mississippi is the only state on Tuesday that will hold primaries for state offices. U.S. Sen. Roger Wicker is the front-runner in his Republican primary for another term. Republican primaries are also on the ballot in the second and fourth congressional districts, while a Democratic primary is on the ballot in the first congressional district.

Here are the March 12 contests at a glance:

DECISION NOTES

Tuesday’s presidential primaries are unlikely to be competitive, as Biden and Trump face no major opposition in their campaigns for renomination. In Georgia, Hawaii, Mississippi and Washington, the first indications that Biden and Trump are winning statewide on a level consistent with the overwhelming margins seen in most other contests held so far this year may be sufficient to determine the statewide winners. In the Democrats Abroad and Northern Mariana Islands party-run Democratic primaries, the party organizations are expected to provide complete results and delegate allocations.

The AP does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it’s determined there is no scenario that would allow the trailing candidates to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.

DELEGATES AT STAKE ON MARCH 12

Democrats: 254

Republicans: 161

STATES WITH PRESIDENTIAL CONTESTS (4)

Georgia, Hawaii (Republican only), Mississippi, Washington

OTHER PRESIDENTIAL CONTESTS (2)

Northern Mariana Islands (Democrats only), Democrats Abroad (Democrats only)

STATES WITH PRIMARIES FOR STATE & LOCAL OFFICES (1)

Mississippi

DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL CONTESTS (5)

STATE-RUN PRIMARIES (3): Georgia, Mississippi, Washington

PARTY-RUN PRESIDENTIAL PREFERENCE VOTES AND CAUCUSES (2): Northern Mariana Islands, Democrats Abroad

REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL CONTESTS (4)

STATE-RUN PRIMARIES (3): Georgia, Mississippi, Washington

PARTY-RUN PRESIDENTIAL PREFERENCE VOTES AND CAUCUSES (1): Hawaii

TUESDAY TIMELINE

4 a.m. EDT: Last polls close in Northern Mariana Islands

8 a.m. EDT: Last polls close in Democrats Abroad primary

7 p.m. EDT: Polls close in Georgia

8 p.m. EDT: Polls close in Mississippi

11 p.m. EDT: Polls close in Washington

2 a.m. EDT: Caucus ends in Hawaii

GEORGIA

PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (D): Biden, Phillips, Williamson. 108 delegates at stake

PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (R): Trump, Haley, Stuckenberg, Binkley, Burgum, Christie, DeSantis, Hutchinson, Johnson, Ramaswamy, Scott. 59 delegates at stake

WHO CAN VOTE: Any registered voter. Voters in Georgia do not register by party

FIRST VOTES REPORTED (2022 Primaries): 7:22 p.m. ET

LAST ELECTION NIGHT UPDATE: 3:25 a.m. ET with about 98% of total vote counted

HAWAII

PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (R): Trump, Haley, Stuckenberg, Binkley, Burgum, Christie, DeSantis, Ramaswamy. 19 delegates at stake

WHO CAN VOTE: Registered voters and Hawaii Republican Party members. Same-day registration available.

RESULTS EXPECTED: State party expects to release first votes at around 2:30 a.m. EDT

MISSISSIPPI

PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (D): Biden. 35 delegates at stake

PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (R): Trump, Haley, DeSantis, Ramaswamy. 40 delegates at stake

STATE PRIMARES: U.S. Senate (R); U.S. House District 1 (D), U.S. House District 2 (R), U.S. House District 4 (R)

WHO CAN VOTE: Any registered voter. Voters in Mississippi do not register by party

FIRST VOTES REPORTED (2022 Primaries): 8:21 p.m. ET

LAST ELECTION NIGHT UPDATE: 1:30 a.m. ET with about 96% of total votes counted

WASHINGTON

PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (D): Biden, Phillips, Williamson, “Uncommitted.” 92 delegates at stake

PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (R): Trump, Haley, Christie, DeSantis, Ramaswamy. 43 delegates at stake

WHO CAN VOTE: Registered voters may participate in either primary but may not vote in both primaries

FIRST VOTES REPORTED (2022 Primaries): 11:08 p.m. ET

LAST ELECTION NIGHT UPDATE: 1:17 a.m. ET with about 54% of total votes counted

NOTES: All registered voters are sent a ballot by mail after Feb. 23. Voters in Washington do not register by party, but for the presidential primary only, they must mark and sign a party declaration statement on the return envelope. The party marked on the envelope must match the party of the candidate the voter selected on the ballot; otherwise, the vote will be invalidated.

DEMOCRATS ABROAD

PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (D): Biden, Williamson. 13 delegates at stake

WHO CAN VOTE: Registered voters who are members of Democrats Abroad. Same-day registration available. Voters casting in-person ballots must do so at a voting center in the country where they reside.

RESULTS EXPECTED: Although the last in-person polls close in the global primary at 8 a.m. EDT in Bangkok, Thailand, the Democrats Abroad organization has until March 17 to tabulate all votes received by mail. The organization expects to release results no later than March 25.

NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS

PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (D): Biden, Palmer, Phillips, Williamson. 6 delegates at stake

WHO CAN VOTE: Democrats who are registered to vote in the Northern Mariana Islands.

RESULTS EXPECTED: Voting ends at 4 a.m. EDT in Saipan. The party says results will be available “no later than” 5 a.m. EDT.

UNCOMMITTED ON THE BALLOT

DEMOCRATS: Washington

ARE WE THERE YET?

As of Tuesday, there will be 125 days until the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, 160 days until the Democratic National Convention in Chicago and 238 days until the November general election.

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Follow the AP’s coverage of the 2024 election at https://apnews.com/hub/election-2024.

Robert Yoon, The Associated Press