Trudeau insists he’s staying on as Liberal leader. But what if he changes his mind?

OTTAWA — The Liberal caucus is set to meet in Nanaimo, B.C., next week for a retreat ahead of the fall parliamentary sitting. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau insists he will lead his party into the next election despite polls citing his unpopularity among Canadians. Here’s a look at what would happen if he decided to call it quits.

Could Prime Minister Justin Trudeau step down?

Absolutely. But a decision to step down becomes a lot harder now that the New Democrats have pulled out of a supply and confidence agreement with the Liberals, which has helped keep the minority government in power. If Trudeau were to resign, the New Democrats could vote with the Conservatives on a confidence motion and trigger a snap election. That could leave the Liberal party without a leader as parties vie for votes.

What would happen if he resigned?

An interim leader would be appointed and a leadership race would be triggered. The national president would have 27 days to call a meeting with the party’s board of directors. A leadership vote committee would also form to plan, organize and carry out the leadership vote.

How quickly could a new leader be named?

It’s not typically a fast process. Trudeau won after a five-month race, but planning was in the works for years.

By comparison, it took two years for the Conservatives to vote in a new leader after Stephen Harper’s resignation following the 2015 election.

The race that brought Pierre Poilievre to the helm of the Conservatives in 2022 lasted eight months.

The Liberal party constitution lays out the process for any potential nominee. They have at least 90 days before a leadership vote to announce their intention to run. They need at least 300 signatures from registered Liberals, 100 of which must come from Liberals in three different provinces.

Could Trudeau resign but finish out his mandate?

Yes. But again, it would be complicated given a Liberal minority government and the threat of a snap election. NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh acknowledged this week that an election could happen earlier than initially expected, which is currently set for October of 2025.

Has a prime minister ever stepped down before?

Yes. In 2002, prime minister Jean Chrétien, facing a challenge from former finance minister and longtime rival Paul Martin, announced he would not lead the Liberals into the next election.

And in 1993 prime minister Brian Mulroney resigned as Progressive Conservative leader. Kim Campbell, defence minister in Mulroney’s cabinet, won the contest to succeed him.

Trudeau’s popularity has also faded, so why is this different?

Chrétien and Mulroney had majority governments, allowing leadership races to unfold without the threat of their administrations falling.

Though there have been rumblings of discontent about Trudeau from within his party, he continues to enjoy the public support of the cabinet and caucus. The exception is Liberal MP Wayne Long, who has called for his resignation.

In addition, there is no obvious heir apparent to Trudeau. Among the rumoured contenders for his job are Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland, Industry Minister François-Philippe Champagne and former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney.

Why were the U.S. Democrats able to replace their candidate for president?

Canada and the U.S. have different systems of government, and Democrats and Liberals have their own sets of party rules.

Even though U.S. President Joe Biden was the Democrats’ presumptive nominee for president, he was not yet their official candidate. This allowed the Democrats to switch candidates before their convention in Chicago last month.

It’s always up to Democratic delegates at their convention to formally vote for an official presidential nominee.

And because there was no major challenge from within the party, it allowed for a smooth transition to replace Biden’s name on the ticket with that of U.S. Vice-President Kamala Harris.

Can Liberals oust Trudeau?

Unlikely. The Liberal party’s constitution says the party leader can be removed only because of a triggering event such as an electoral loss, incapacitation or death.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 7, 2024.

The Canadian Press